Have you had that feeling lately? That sense that we’re all just… drifting apart?
It feels like we’re living in different worlds, even when we’re next-door neighbors. We’re shouting past each other online, disagreeing on basic facts, and struggling to find common ground. It’s exhausting, and honestly, a little scary.
Well, it turns out that feeling isn’t just in your head. It’s real, it’s measurable, and it might just be the single biggest threat we face.
I just finished reading through AXA’s latest Future Risks Report for 2025, and it’s one of the most sobering things I’ve seen in a while. For years, these reports have been dominated by one single, massive threat: climate change. And while that’s still at the top of the list, something new is happening. The gap is closing. Fast.
Geopolitical chaos and cyber threats are now breathing down climate’s neck. But the report’s most stunning takeaway isn’t about any one of those risks. It’s about the invisible thread connecting and amplifying all of them: social fragmentation.
Simply put, as we pull apart from each other, our ability to handle any crisis falls apart, too.
We’re Not on the Same Page Anymore
Let’s look at the numbers, because they’re pretty stark. AXA surveyed nearly 27,000 people, from experts to the general public, across 57 countries.
The results? An overwhelming majority—95% of experts and 93% of the public—feel that crises have been piling up in recent years. No surprise there.
But here’s the kicker. A whopping 59% of people believe their country has fewer common values than it used to, or none at all. Only a tiny 10% described their country as “fairly united.”
Think about that. We’re facing bigger, more complex problems than ever before, and we’re doing it at a time when we trust each other and our leaders less than ever. In fact, only 19% of experts and 16% of the public have full confidence that our authorities can handle what’s coming. That’s a staggering lack of faith.
This isn’t just a philosophical problem. It’s a practical one. How do you organize a collective response to a hurricane, a pandemic, or a massive cyberattack when nobody agrees on the plan, or even on the nature of the threat itself?
You can’t. Fragmentation acts like a risk multiplier, taking a bad situation and making it exponentially worse.
The Big Three Risks Aren't What They Used to Be
For five years running, climate change has been the undisputed heavyweight champion of global risks. This year, it’s still holding the belt, but its dominance is fading.
In Europe, for the first time ever, experts ranked geopolitical instability as the #1 risk, pushing climate to second place. In parts of Africa, cybersecurity took the top spot.
This doesn't mean people are suddenly less worried about the planet burning (2024 was the hottest year on record, after all). It means other massive, immediate threats are demanding our attention.
Here’s what’s on everyone’s mind:
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Climate Change: The fear here is becoming more immediate. Experts are less focused on the long-term transition and more on the here-and-now: 45% pointed to the destruction of property and infrastructure from natural disasters as their main concern. We're worried about our homes flooding this year, not just about carbon targets in 2050.
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Geopolitical Instability: The fear of global war is very real for 84% of experts. But the immediate anxiety has shifted. Last year, it was about military conflict. This year, it’s about the economic fallout—trade wars, broken supply chains, and sanctions. It’s hitting us in the wallet, and that gets personal, fast.
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Cybersecurity: This is no longer just an IT department problem. It’s a societal one. 71% of experts feel vulnerable to cyber threats in their daily lives. The big fear? Cyber warfare that targets critical infrastructure—power grids, hospitals, and water supplies.
And then there’s the new kid on the block, a risk that’s been quietly building for decades and has finally cracked the top ten.
The Slow-Motion Crisis We Can’t Ignore
For the first time, risks related to changing demographics have entered the top ten. And folks, this is a big one. It’s a slow-motion crisis, but its impact will be massive and long-lasting.
Here’s the situation in a nutshell: We’re getting older, and we’re not having enough kids to replace ourselves.
- One in four people on Earth now lives in a country where the population has already peaked.
- In Europe, 21% of the population is over 65. By 2050, that’ll be 29%.
- Asia’s elderly population will nearly double to 19% in that same period.
This isn’t some abstract economic theory. It has real, cascading consequences that experts are seriously worried about. They see a significant risk of pension systems collapsing (80%), healthcare systems failing (74%), and a massive shortage of caregivers (80%).
What makes this so tricky is that the most obvious solution is also the most controversial. When asked, 74% of people agreed that encouraging immigration of young families would be an effective solution. But 68% are against actually doing it.
That’s fragmentation in action—we can see a potential solution, but our social and political divisions prevent us from even considering it.
So, Who’s Going to Save Us?
With all these threats piling up, you’d hope we could count on our leaders. But remember that trust deficit? Confidence in public authorities is at rock bottom. For huge risks like AI, climate, and cyber, only 11-12% of experts think authorities are well-prepared.
So where do people turn?
Surprisingly, they’re looking at us—the insurance industry.
Amid this crisis of confidence, 89% of experts and 72% of the public believe that insurers have a vital role to play in protecting society from these emerging risks.
This is a massive vote of confidence, and it represents a fundamental shift in what people expect from us. They don’t just want a check after the disaster. They want a partner to help them prevent the disaster in the first place.
Corporate clients are spelling it out for us. They want:
- Help managing risks for new, innovative solutions (66%)
- Support in building up their own prevention and resilience (61%)
- Knowledge and education to better understand the risks they face (57%)
This is the "Payer-to-Partner" strategy in action. We’re moving beyond just financial compensation and into the world of active risk mitigation. AXA, for example, is already modeling climate impacts out to 2050, training thousands of clients on climate resilience, and issuing weather alerts with concrete, actionable advice.
It’s about becoming a source of stability and expertise in a world that feels increasingly chaotic.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Look, this report isn’t exactly a feel-good read. It paints a picture of a fractured, anxious world facing a "polycrisis"—where multiple disasters feed into one another.
But it’s not hopeless.
Despite the deep divisions, 72% of people still believe in democracy. Despite the lack of faith in government, huge majorities believe in the power of prevention.
This is our opening. The insurance industry was literally built on the idea of mutual support—of pooling resources to protect the collective from individual catastrophe. In a fragmented world, that original mission has never been more critical.
Our job now is to be more than just a financial backstop. We need to be a force for resilience, a source of credible information, and a partner in building a safer future. The world is pulling apart, but our industry is uniquely positioned to help stitch it back together, one risk at a time. It’s a huge challenge, but if we don't step up, who will?
